How it works
A value bet is a price that's higher than it should be. Find enough of them and, over time, the maths is on your side.
- 1
The fair price
For every match our algorithm estimates the true chance of each outcome. A 50% chance has a fair price of 2.00; a 25% chance, 4.00. Bookmakers build a margin into their odds, so their prices are usually below fair.
- 2
The edge
Sometimes a bookmaker's price is above fair: they've priced the match differently, or haven't moved yet. If the fair price is 2.00 and Stoiximan offers 2.10, that's a 5% edge. That's a value bet.
- 3
Worth it down to
Prices move quickly once others spot them. Each tip shows the lowest odds that still leave a real edge. If the price has already dropped below it, skip the tip.
- 4
Why results take time
A value bet still loses often: a 4.00 price wins about one time in four. The edge shows over hundreds of tips, not ten. That's why we publish every result, so you can judge the long run yourself.
- 5
Stakes
Our record uses the same stake on every tip (1 unit). Choose a unit you're comfortable losing many times in a row, and keep it fixed.